Pablo Valenzuela

Notes and summaries of different materials
General

Relationships and decisions. By Tim Ferris & Kevin Rose

At latest podcast from The Tim Ferris Show, Tim and Kevin meet to chat about their latest learning and share some tips and experiences that apply in their day to day.

In this summary, I will review some of the keys mentioned for having been interesting, surprising or noteworthy related to couple relationships and decision making.

Couple lessons learned in recent years

  • Kevin: Therapies are highly underrated
    • She credits the success of her relationship with seeing a therapist once a week with her partner..
    • The goal of therapy was to use their free time to have well-structured conversations that would help them find the best way to move on.
    • Try to find someone who is always on your team and vice versa.
  • Tim: Polarity in a relationship is important.
    • “What I have observed in my case and also in some friends, is that it helps to find someone who is as far as you are from the neutral point. Maintain and enhance polarity in a relationship it is important to maintain attraction and a healthy sex life.”
    • It is critical to have a structure for cultivate relationship – this can be in the form of week therapy, a weekend date or a couple's day.
      • Somehow, this serves to “cultivate the garden before the weeds take over”.

Regular couple conversations

  • Tim and his girl are regularly scheduled to talk about their relationship – prefer to encapsulate these conversations instead of having them randomly; why?
    • Tim says it's something “sensible”: It excessively stimulates you to make unexpected decisions. It can surely have adverse effects on your day if you face some couple conflicts on any day at 2 pm.
  • The format of their conversations is usually something like this:
    • Tim and his girl discuss things that they think the other person is doing well since the last conversation.
    • Then, talk about what they think they are doing well.
    • By last, they talk about what they think the other person could do even better.
  • During these sessions, they both take notes and then send them to the other person.

The language you use with your partner is vitally important

  • About the book Nonviolent communication, from Marshall Rosenberg comment:
    • “If you express things in such a way that you are taking full responsibility for the experience and emotions, you disarm the other person and help avoid attacks or the defense of the other.”
    • For example, instead of saying: “You have done X to make me feel Y”, you can say: “The story that I created in my head is that you made X because…”
    • Another tip for relationships: If you think your emotions are getting out of hand and keep arguing it can only end in a fight, postpone the conversation.
      • In other words: veto a conversation until you are in an emotional state where the content or tone of the conversation does not take you to the extreme.

Never be afraid to admit that you don't know something

  • If i look back, The only thing I didn't do fast enough was recognize myself and others who didn't know a certain thing.. The faster you are in recognizing that there is no gap in your knowledge, the faster that gap is filled.

Make a decision that saves you 100 subsequent decisions

  • For the past few months Tim has been focusing a lot on saying “no” and develop norms or policies that allow you to say no more quickly or easily.
  • One of the questions Tim usually has on his mind is “In what areas of my life can I make a decision that will eliminate hundreds or thousands of future decisions??”
    • Some examples:
      • En 2015, Tim publicly stopped investing in startups.
      • A while ago Tim promised not to do any more book propaganda.
      • En 2020, Tim has promised not to read books that have come out this year. – keeping focus on books that have been able to pass the test of time.
        • why? Esther decisión le aleja del FOMO (Fear of missing out) that appears every time a new book is released.

Continue reading
General

The best decade of humanity (for the moment)

“It strikes me that people think that we are going to get better, and the world is not going to get better. Our world, West, Europe, where I am, where i grew up, that comes from Troy, del Islam, from middle Ages, Renaissance… that world is ready for papers, its best moment has been the 20th century, and now we are in decline, it will never be better.”

Attributed to Arturo Pérez-Reverte.

This quote, attributed to Pérez-Reverte, describe the society in which we live as decadent and sentence that it will never be better than now. A few hard affirmations, pessimistic and how certain?

En 2020 the world is more connected than ever. You can not only travel to any corner of the world in a more or less safe way, but also, thanks to the internet you have access to the alexandria library raised to the nth power. And all from the palm of your hand.

Maybe, in this time of almost absolute access to all information and places, we are more blind than ever. While until recently access to information was a problem, now the problem is about being able to see relevant information that is not relevant. Distinguish noise from information.

We have just started the year 2020 and this pessimistic discourse is present in our day to day. But is it true that the world is a worse place today than before? Was the 20th century your best moment or was it another moment?

Are we in today “a better world”?

Following pessimistic statements like the one above, alarmist speeches in which he is branded as “climate apocalypse” (and two) our near future or publications that state that “we have already destroyed half the trees on the planet“, the question arises how far is this true? Are we really that bad? or can the straw not let us see the wheat?

We find ourselves in a world that each day is better than the last. A world that, after this last decade (what if, the new decade begins in 2021) has managed to improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people through cooperation between individuals. That today takes care and protects more the climate than it does 10 años, and immensely more than what was done in the 20th century. Definitely, we are in the best time to live, as a human being, in all of human history.

During the last years this planet is increasingly a place where there is more and more health, but wealth, more life expectancy, but peace, more cooperation and at the same time there is less poverty, less armed conflict, less infant mortality, less malnutrition or more access to education and information. These statements are not without their points. There are countless social conflicts, personal, political or climatic that we have not yet been able to solve or that today are not considered problems but tomorrow we will.

Sustaining this type of affirmation requires a careful study in the matter and a deep scrutiny of each aspect and for that, scientific analysis and objective data must be used (as far as possible) to support this thesis so contrary to the one that is communicated to us every day.

The 28% of all the wealth that has existed in humanity

According to the data collected by the World Bank and in the absence of collecting the data corresponding to 2019 full, tells us that the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP in current USD) en 2010 It was from 66,051 Billion and in 2018 of 85,910. In the absence of data from 2019 reliable, we do a simple calculation for (considering that this last year we have not had global financial cataclysms) try to come up with a number to assign to 2019. Like in 2017 the increase was 4,787 Billion and in 2018 of 4,959 Billon, we take the stocking (giving negative global growth in 2019) and it gives us that 2019 would have a value in the increase of the world wealth of 4,873 Billion.

Now, doing the calculation the result it gives us is that wealth in terms of world GDP is around 90,783 Billion and if in 2010 It was from 66,051 Billion, gives us an increase of 27,24%.

Reasons for this growth there are many, but I consider that three of the big culprits may be the greater access to communications, improvement in global transport networks and international trade.

Extreme poverty was cut in half

The world bank returns to give us data and this time they are in relation to extreme poverty. En 2011 the extreme poverty threshold was set at $1,90 (before came from $1,25) in what is considered international dollars. For this, the value of goods is homogenized to eliminate the distortions caused by local currencies.

The data tells us that:
En 2005 they had 1,350 millions of people in extreme poverty. For a total of 6,520 millions of people in the world. A 20%.

En 2015 they had 734 millions in extreme poverty. With a total of 7,357 millions of people. A 10%.

The world we live in, not only has it managed to halve the number of people living in poverty, but it has also done so while growing in population. You can check the world bank data here.

Infant mortality fell by a third

According to last study Nations and the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, infant mortality has decreased dramatically in recent years globally. The annual rate of reduction of infant mortality has been 3.8%, what to 10 years is more than a third. The change has been more pronounced among the children of 0 a 5 años, while of 6 a 15 years its reduction has not been so great. Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and South Asia have been the areas where this reduction is most notable.

The main causes of death, en 2018, for children under 5 years were: prepartum complications (16%), pneumonia (15%) and complications in childbirth (11%).

These changes are possibly due to a reduction in the cost of treatments that we have considered basic in the West for decades and are now accessible by the poorest countries, to greater access to information on health and the advance in health that has been taking place globally for decades.

Life expectancy goes from 69.5 a 72.6 años

According to the United Nations in its latest statistical and forecast data, people's life expectancy does not stop climbing. Recently passed from 69.5 a 72.6 years and keeps going up after big jumps in recent 70 años. These dates slightly differ of the world bank, Although I understand that life expectancy is not an objective data that can guarantee how long you will live.

Fewer countries criminalize homosexuality

At last report State homophobia, the international lesbian association, gays, bisexual, trans e intersex (ILGA) of 2019, give all the data related to the countries that criminalize (and those who don't) same-sex relationships happening globally 40% al 27%.

Some key facts are:

2009: 80 states with laws that punish gay relationships.
2019: 68 states with laws that punish gay relationships.

Special mention for Yemen with 100 lashes and even the death penalty and Iran with the punishment of a baton and possible death penalty for a law that was put in 2013.

These data correspond to member countries of the UN. And although the number has been reduced by 12 states that have gone from having laws punishing these acts to not having them (what in itself is a great change of political and social mentality), yes it is true that, have a list of 68 where this type of act is illegal indicates that there is a long way to go in the coming years.
Are we better doing 10 años? Yes. Can we be better? Undoubtedly.

Countries that protect women from 53% al 78%

Global legislation is changing by leaps and bounds in recent years in terms of equality and according to the World Bank, in his study “Women, Company and the law 2020“, point out that since 201, 40 countries have made 62 reforms in favor of gender equality.

According to the WBL Index (which are the initials of this study) Spain is left with a note from the 97.5%, only missing the paid parental leave to get to the 100%. Being ahead of countries like Switzerland, Austria, Alemania, Japan, New Zealand or Norway.

The vast majority of countries participating in the data have made progress in equality in recent years. 10 años.

The death rate from contamination is reduced by 19%

In his study “Outdoor Air Pollution” (November 2019), Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser review the changes in air pollution over the past three decades.

They estimate that in 2017 occurred 3,4 millions of premature deaths due to this cause. Since 1990 to this day, deaths from this cause have gone from 55 a 44 por cada 100,000 population. A reduction close to 20%. But also, this has occurred as the world population went from 5,300 millions to almost 7,800 millions.

They also drop that in countries currently considered wealthy, Pollution levels have decreased compared to the past, and indicate that the way to improve this situation may be to accelerate the prosperity of countries that are currently considered middle-income and poor. (and everyone will understand a way to make this happen).

Deaths from natural disasters drop a 95%

Hannah and Max present again at Our World in Data A study that started in 2014 and updated to 2019 related to natural disasters where they give some key data next to the statistic from 1900, to understand how our world has changed:

  • Deaths from this cause have assumed on average 60,000 deaths a year.
  • Natural disasters caused, in some years, million deaths annually and in the last decade, an average of 60,000.
  • Historically, droughts and floods were the main cause of death. Today the most damaging are earthquakes.
  • These disasters affect the poorest countries most markedly, they lack adequate infrastructure to protect themselves and respond to these events.

“Peak Stuff” or how the consumption of raw materials is reduced

Andrew McAfee, in your book “More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources” reviews the history of civilization and how frequently the premise for man was “do more with less”.

He tells us how capitalism and technology have been the two engines that have improved the efficiency of the world year by year in recent centuries.. In the past, this combination made us take more and more of the planet, however in recent years this trend has been reversed.

What happened was the invention of the computer, networks and software. From there, resource consumption and efficiency took a new path.

On the other hand, creative ability and competition have made the human being have invented over the years new more efficient ways of achieving things. Like cars, planes or ships now consume less than before or even electric vehicles appear, substitutes for other raw materials are also found when supply contracts and the price rises as demand continues. This fact encourages creativity (and the possibility of profit) and consequently cheaper alternatives appear that finally make the demand for the raw material fall.

BONUS: Fewer and fewer free countries

Not everything was going to be good news. FreedomHouse, an independent organization dedicated to the expansion of freedom and democracy, founded in 1941, has published in his recent study of 2019, some worrying facts about the freedom of the countries of the world:

Year and CountriesFreePartial freedomNot free
200846.1%32.2%21.8%
201844.1%30.3%25.6%

These data show that some political decisions in the world are not going in favor of the freedom of individuals.. While in some specific matters that have been discussed here there has been progress, roughly, it seems that the advances do not fully favor individuals.

Some of the countries that have fallen in the libertal index have been some as close as Portugal, Austria, Reino Unido… And some have improved: Afghanistan, Kosovo, Mexico… better see the full study.

Conclusions

Again, all these data are global and surely among all this you can find specific cases or areas of the world where things are not right right now. However, if we have to draw a conclusion on how the world is evolving, Should we look at the best cases? In the worst? Or on an average?

Perhaps looking at the average can give us information about the direction in which we are going.. While locally, Maybe we should continue working to make these data ridiculous in a decade from our next achievement..

Continue reading
General

Why buying a home may not be your best option

Buying a house is usually one of the steps “natural” to give throughout a life. As you grow, an expectation is generated about what “you should” do: get you a career, get a job, have a car, find a partner, have children, buy a house…

But doing these things not only may some people not fit, they can become a mistake if you do it due to social pressure or unsubstantiated personal belief.

Do you really want to own a home?

Some people have a need to create their home, in making it yours in every way. Buying a home allows you to get closer to that feeling. Also, it is an asset that gives you the emotional feeling of stability and permanence.

But, This is what you need? Have you considered that by acquiring a home you agree to stay in it? Maybe you feel more comfortable being able to go to the landlord when an appliance breaks or a pipe leaks..

How long do you plan to be in it?

When you rent a house you commit, at least one year of permanence. The commitments that exist are short-term. But when you decide to buy it you must be very clear about your time horizon because it will have great economic consequences if you fail.

When you buy a house there are commissions that you will pay on a mandatory basis. The longer you stay in the house, more distributed it will be in time. However if you decide to change soon, those costs surely you will not recover.

What if you need to stay longer?

A normal approach is usually that you acquire the house you need and if your needs change, you are looking for another one. This idea that a priori is conservative involves a series of problems:

  • The real estate market is usually illiquid. Maybe you want to sell the house today but it takes 2-3 years of finally selling it.
  • The costs of change are enormous. Bank fees, bureaucracy, transfers, services and insurance that surely overlap temporarily.
  • If time is pressing and you want to change, Will you be willing to reduce the sale price of your old home? Did you consider this in your financial forecast?

These issues must be addressed prior to purchase, that way you can reduce your future mistakes.

Do you have the 20% (the but) to deliver input?

Some financial institutions will grant you until 80% of the value of the house in exchange for mortgaging it. But there are other expenses when it comes to getting a home:

  • Initial notary fees.
  • Expenses of early amortization of the mortgage (between 0,25-2%, depending on the date and conditions in which it was signed).
  • Mortgage life insurance (desde 200 EUR a 600 EUR annual).
  • Notary fees and registration upon completion of payment.

It is necessary to take into account these expenses that a priori are exempt from the initial cost of the house but it will be necessary to take charge of them over time.

Can you bear the maintenance costs?

Once you have the house, expenses don't end. There are some expected and other unforeseen expenses that must be addressed, such as:

  • Real estate tax.
  • Ordinary and extraordinary community expenses.
  • Common maintenance (home appliances, installations…)
  • Eventual reforms (furniture change, room extension, painting…)

While at the time of renting the house these expenses are usually included in the price, the same does not happen when you are the owner. You have to be prepared for this type of contingencies.

What is your opportunity cost?

When we make a decision on what to invest our time or money the concept appears “opportunity cost”. This is the cost for us to choose one option or another. How can this be measured??

Let's imagine, in a simplistic way, that as input, for our new house, we have to deliver 50.000 EUR (and of course we have them). That money has the possibility of providing us with endless benefits. One of them will be the entrance to our apartment. But we could also invest them in a new business (that could bring us economic benefits), on a trip (emotional benefit) or in our professional training (that could help us improve our economic position).

When we choose to invest that money (that we now have) and our future money (the one that we still have to earn -if we are going to mortgage ourselves-) we're giving up those other options and that's called opportunity cost.

The New York Times prepared at 2014 a tool to calculate, according to many parameters, when we should rent and when to buy.

Do you know the risks?

As we have seen so far, paying a mortgage is not the same as paying a rent. While if you can not afford the rent at a certain time, you can end the contract in the short term, if the water heater breaks you can ask the landlord to change it or if the community decides to change the elevator it will be something that will not affect you, when you own these expenses appear.

On the other hand, your bank will be as generous as it can be with the amount it will deliver to you and the real estate agent will adjust to your maximum budget before the minimum. You can easily see yourself increasing your maximum budget and taking risks that you may not be seeing with the naked eye. Well, the higher your monthly income with respect to your salary, the greater financial pressure there is on you.

Have you considered investing in something else (including you)?

When it comes to using money to buy a home it is often seen as an investment.. However, I think this concept is wrong if we take into account certain special aspects that occur when buying a home.:

  • Annually it has high maintenance costs, that over the years grow.
  • You cannot sell the investment without causing major disruptions in your life.
  • There is no liquid market where you can go to sell your house quickly.
  • If you buy the house through a bank mortgage, that “inversión” it is not yours.
  • Selling it has high commissions.
  • It would mean investing almost 100% of the heritage of a family in a single asset.
  • It will not generate any income / economic benefit (as long as you live in it).

With this I want to transmit, that as an investment it presents a series of problems (leaving aside the fluctuations in its price).

If you consider it an investment, you should know that there are other vehicles in which you can put your assets in operation and get profitability:

  • Stock market.
  • Pension plans.
  • Invest in your training.

Advantages and disadvantages

As a summary, having a house has advantages, como por ejemplo:

  • Provides you with that security, feeling of stability and permanence in your life.
  • It allows you to choose exactly what your house will be like and give it your character.
  • That there is no regular financial transaction and a temporary rental agreement makes you feel safe.
  • A mortgage with a fixed interest rate can help you with your financial planning.
  • In the long term you have a better chance of a positive revaluation.

Although there are also disadvantages:

  • Lots of indirect costs: repairs, insurance, taxes, interests..
  • Financial profits or losses are almost impossible to calculate accurately due to the multitude of variables.
  • Having a home gives you stability but also takes away flexibility.
  • You can't get anything of value out of the house unless you get rid of it completely (ex-AirBnb).
  • The costs of changing houses can be tremendous.
  • A house is assimilated more to a consumer good than to an investment.
  • By mortgaging you, you leverage with debt. What can act in your favor or against in a very big way.

What conclusion is there?

Each person will see the opportunity to buy a house one way. Some will be prepared to take responsibility and others will prefer other options.. This diversity of opinions brings a dynamic buying and renting real estate market that will be able to cover the needs of each individual and if it does not cover them, the individual will always have another option.

In this case there do not seem to be any incorrect decisions by nature, but people not prepared or who have not considered enough the option they are going to choose.

Continue reading
General

Seeking confuse

Don't confuse sightseeing with traveling.

Do not confuse pleasure with happiness.

Don't confuse memorizing with learning.

Don't confuse the name of something, with the something.

Don't confuse reading with thinking.

Don't confuse thinking with doing.

Do not confuse change with growth.

Don't confuse lust with love.

Don't confuse loneliness with peace.

Don't confuse talking with knowing.

Don't confuse shyness with calm.

Don't confuse arrogance with trust.

Don't confuse greed with ambition.

Don't confuse obligation with solidarity.

Don't confuse doubt with patience.

And don't mistake confusion for mistake.

Continue reading
Business

FCF calculation & Calculation of maintenance Capex

For the simplified calculation of Free Cash Flow, We use these reference values:

  • EBITDA
  • – Interests
  • – Taxes
  • – Maintenance Capex

We use EBITDA because it provides free benefits Depreciation and Amortization. What, otherwise we should add them to operating profit. This value can be found in the income statement.

For simplicity, We begin by subtracting the interest the company pays, either by the negative financial result or debt interest. In certain companies this value is not significant, but others do, so we included by default in this example, Apart from that, the outflow of cash. We can find this value in the income statement.

Also we subtract taxes, because the company has had to pay. In cases where the number of taxes vary greatly from one year to another, we must normalize this data. It is also found in the income statement.

Subtracting the maintenance Capex; Generally usually it found in the cash flow statement as costs / investments in active and also not usually separate between Capex maintenance and growth. Very regular companies do not need to make adjustment, But if we dig a little in the relationship between business growth and investment being made, we can reach a more or less approximate value that allows us to find the Capex.

According to the book Value Investing, From Graham to Buffett and Beyon, on your page number 96, as annotation, We find the detail of how they try to approximate this data.

 

In summary:

Capex growth = (media) of (Property plant equipment / Total Sales) x Increase (decrease) sales.

Capex Maintenance Capex = statement by the company – Capex growth.

 

 

Excel sample available.

Continue reading

Who writes

Pablo Valenzuela

Company, ecommerce, economy, history, law, philosophy and thought govern the content of this page without an order or specific purpose. The specialization, for insects. I am writing to order ideas, learn better and settle knowledge.

Read More

Meanwhile on Twitter

Categories